Archive for September, 2010

Tropical Depression Worth Watching This Weekened

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Possible threat to Gulf states next week

If the second scenario of a stalled Matthew comes to pass, then areas of the Gulf coast around to the Atlantic side of Florida will have to pay very close attention.

A trough of low pressure swinging through the lower 48 states next week could draw Matthew northward and toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Any tropical storm or hurricane that gets into the Gulf of Mexico in October could be a significant danger.

However, right now, we have to wait to see how far west this system gets.

There is no cause for immediate alarm along the Southwest Florida coast.

In light of forecasts for increasing tropical activity in the Caribbean over the next few weeks, it would be wise to use the upcoming weekend to make sure you have the necessary supplies in the event of an eventual threat.

Possible Hurricane Trouble For US

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

From NBC-2

Several of the reliable computer models are starting to hint at some unpleasant news to come, when it relates to tropical trouble for the U.S. coastline.

We have been intently watching these Cape Verde storms (storms that emerge from Africa) over the past few weeks, and aside from Karl and Hermine, there haven’t been signficant threats to the Gulf of Mexico or the Southeast.

Of course, Florida has been sitting pretty in the middle in-between the western Gulf storms and the Atlantic hurricanes.

However, the long-range forecasts are now trending toward a zone of higher tropical activity closer to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and possibly the Southeast U.S.

Storms will become fewer and fewer in number coming off of Africa late this month and into October.

Meanwhile, temperatures will be cooling and overall air pressures will be rising across northern North America as the first hints of Fall affect Canada and the northern U.S.

Models are conversely depicting the overall lowering of air pressures across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as we go through time.

This will likely promote the development of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean or Gulf and the potential for them to make it farther north and threaten the U.S. coast.

The GFS model has been adamant on the development of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Caribbean about one week from now that could be the start of this trend.  Emphasis, please, on the word “could.”

We’ll watch it, but for the next week-plus, Southwest Florida has no tropical threat.

Three Hurricanes Swirl in Tropics

Friday, September 17th, 2010

Latest Data:

The eye of Hurricane Karl has hit Mexico’s Gulf Coast near the city of Veracruz with winds of 115 mph (185 kph).

The National Hurricane Center says the storm’s center hit about 10 miles (15 kilometers) northwest of Veracruz.

Meanwhile, while hurricanes Igor and Julia are forecast to stay far to the east of the U.S., Igor is expected to churn up high surf and rip currents off the Central Florida coast.

If you’re heading to the beach to take in the fun, be very careful to only enter the waters being monitored by lifeguards. Offshore, seas will be building and eventually run in the 10 to 13 ft range by Sunday.

Hurricane Igor: Latest advisory

Igor is expected to remain a dangerous, major hurricane for a couple more days.

Watches and warnings

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook

At 2 p.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Igor was located near latitude 23.4 north, longitude 60.7 west.

Igor is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This general motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the hurricane will be approaching Bermuda on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph, with higher gusts. Igor is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next couple of days, but Igor is expected to remain a powerful Hurricane.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb, or 27.93 inches.

Hazards affecting lan

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by late Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible on Sunday.

Surf: Large swells will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola and portions of the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells will also cause dangerous surf conditions in Bermuda during the next several days, which will worsen as Igor approaches.

Swells will continue to affect the East Coast of the United States through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office for additional information.

Tracking Three Storms In The Tropics

Wednesday, September 15th, 2010

From NBC-2

Hurricane Igor is a Category 4 storm with winds near 155 mph in the mid-Atlantic moving toward the west-northwest near nine mph.

A turn to the northwest if expected within the next couple of days.

There will be little change in strength over the next 24 hours, but come weakening could begin Thursday as this storm heads through cooler waters and more wind shear.

Bermuda is still in the middle in the forecast cone this weekend. Igor is producing large swells in the Leeward Islands.

Large swells will reach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Thursday.

The swells will reach the Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

These large swells can create threatening surf and rip currents.

Hurricane Julia is still in the eastern Atlantic. Winds are now near 125 mph making this a Category 3 storm.

Additional strengthening is possible today. Julia is moving toward the west-northwest at nine mph and a turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed on Thursday.

A turn to the north in the mid-Atlantic is still expected to keep this system at sea.

Tropical Storm Karl formed yesterday and today winds are near 45 mph.

Karl is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula as it moves to the west-northwest near 15 mph. Karl will continue to move in that direction with a decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days.

On this path, Karl will move across the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight or Thursday.

There will be some weakening of this system as it moves across the Yucatan Wednesday, followed by restrengthening after Karl moves back into the Gulf of Mexico and heads toward Mexico.

Karl will produce coastal flood near and north of landfall and the surge will be topped with large and damaging waves.

Rainfall amounts over Belize and northern Guatemala will reach three to five inches with some isolated totals of eight inches.

Hermine Fizzles, New Storm Forms

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

A system moving west off the coast of Africa has a 70 percent chance of forming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the National Weather Service said Wednesday morning.

With the system traveling west at between 10 and 15 mph, possible development is projected as the strong upper-level winds decrease over the next couple of days, the weather service said. There’s a high probability this system will form a tropical depression in a day or so.

Meanwhile, the weather service issued its last public advisory for Hermine at 4 a.m., as the tropical depression delivered flooding rains and 30 mph winds to portions of north and central Texas.

Hermine was expected to continue weakening as it moves north through southwest Oklahoma and onto southern Kansas by Thursday.